Any rooks worth drafting?

I’m actually in the middle of a fantasy football draft right now.  Unfortunately, it’s moving at an agonizing speed because he happens via email and the league includes some folks in the military who don’t have ready access to the internet.

It’s a keeper league, and I inherited a team that was harrible.  Seriously.  Not good.  The first and second years I literally asked if I could get extra draft picks instead of keeping three players because there weren’t three I wanted.  Unfortunately, the answer was no.  Over the years, I made some trades which usually didn’t help me in the short term.  I got rid of Drew brees, traded Antonio Gates and got less talent in return.  Luckily, I also got a couple draft picks, and I’ve finally started to turn things around.  Now, my team still isn’t top notch – but I might be at least respectable this year.

So far I have: Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub, Jamal Lewis, Brandon Jacobs, Fred Taylor, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, Alge Crumpler and the Steelers DEF.

Here’s the current dilemma – there are 16 teams so toward the end of the draft there are pretty slim pickings.  This is where the rooks come in.  Every year someone jumps at a ridiculous rookie early in the draft, but there are still lots of options out there toward the end so we can fill those benches.  So here are some of the rookies left on the board – who are you taking and who are you leaving?

QB: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson, John David Booty, Chad Henne

RB: Ray Rices, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson

WR: James Hardy, Devin Thomas, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, Mario Manningham, Limas Sweed

So who’s a keeper?  I’m seriously considering James Hardy in Buffalo or Limas Sweed in Pittsburgh.  Should I have my head checked?

2008 AFC East – The New England Patriots

Last season, the Patriots steamrolled through the regular season with only a couple close calls coming in the final few games. 16-0 was nice, but an 18-1 final record including a mesmerizing 17-14 loss to the G-men in the Super Bowl made everyone quickly forget about the unmatched regular season.

Looking ahead to this fall, I’m expecting more of the same from the Patriots but maybe with a little less effectiveness. Seems like in the NFL it’s hard to repeat total domination year in, year out.  Just look at the St. Louis Rams and the so-called “Greatest Show on Turf.” In the 1999 regular season, St. Louis piled up 30+ points per game and went on to outlast the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16. The Rams exploited NFL defenses who had not seen a passing offense of that style in the entire league’s history. However, you don’t fool the NFL’s defensive masterminds for long. Before they knew it, injuries plagued them in 2000 and then in 2001 the Rams were beaten by – guess who – the Patriots in SB XXXVI. From then on defenses had caught up to the Rams and their show was not the greatest anymore.

All that said, here are some stats to remember: Last season, the Pats averaged 411 yards of offense (1st overall), 36.8 points per game (1st) and averaged only giving up 288 yards (4th) and 17.1 points per game (4th). The mighty Tom Brady threw for 4,800+yards and 50 TDs (NFL single season record) and Moss had 1,493 yards receiving and 23 TDs (another NFL single season record).

I believe Brady and Moss (along with Wes Welker) and the myriad of other receivers the Patriots plug into their offense each year will perform at a high level again. However, I’m expecting more NFL defenses to put massive pressure on Brady like the Jints did in last year’s Super Bowl. With games at San Diego, Indianapolis, Seattle and Buffalo and a home game vs. Pittsburgh, the Pats will be vulnerable. The final result: regular season losses. Nope, the Pats are not going undefeated this year folks.  However, they do play in the AFC East, so that will help as usual. New England will finish 13-3.

Key losses: Asante Samuel (CB) to Philly, Donte Stallworth (WR) to Cleveland and Randall Gay (CB) to New Orleans.

Key additions: draft picks Jerod Mayo (Tennessee, pick no. 10) at LB and Shawn Crable (Michigan, 78)  also at LB will help fill holes left by the departure of Roosevelt Colvin and most likely Junior Seau who will not return at LB.

And one final tidbit. As of today, WR Troy Brown remains a free agent, but as usual (as we’ve seen the past 2-3 years), expect Brown to be signed at some point either prior to the season or early in the year as a WR/special teams insurance policy.

 

The bowls seem like a long way off

So ESPN’s Mark Schlabach has decided to give us an early look at the 2007-2008 bowl games. He is really a trooper. I gotta think he went through about 17 pots of coffee and 23 spreadsheets to try to get that done. I think that because I decided to go through my as-yet-unannounced-preseason-to-25 to just see who’s going to the BCS games. (remember this is just my top-25 not the consensus to-25 that’s going to rock the nation when it gets released).

This has been a couple days in the making, because I had to confer with the BCS home page for the BCS selection rules. I then had to hire a sherpa to help me untangle exactly what it is the BCS does. If this, then that. If not this, then not that. If team A eats spaghetti on Tuesday, team C gets an auto berth to the sugar bowl. And so on. But I think I figured it out.

So here’s ESPN’s BCS and what the BCS will look like if my preseason top-25 remains intact.

BCS National Title Contest presented by the good folks at FedEx
SCHLABACH: The Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Georgia Bulldogs
MattD: The Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl presented by Tostitos
SCHLABACH: Oklahoma Sooners vs. BYU
MattD: Oklahoma Sooners vs. BYU

The Sugar is in good hands Bowl presented by Allstate
SCHLABACH: Auburn vs. Texas Tech
MattD: Florida vs. Missouri

The we have enough cash to sponsor two Orange Bowl presented by FedEx
SCHLABACH: WVU vs. Clemson
MattD: WVU vs. Clemson

The Rose Bowl
SCHLABACH USC vs. Wisconsin
MattD: USC vs. Wisconsin

How about that? Pretty darn close. And I didn’t even cheat, because I did the top 25 earlier this week and simply followed the horribly draconian and confusing rules the BCS set up to create the matchups.

Surely ESPN and my agreement has to be bad news for these teams. ESPN is rarely right, and I can’t even use the word rarely to describe my success at picks, so good like to these teams – here’s hoping you don’t end up in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

It’s coming: Your NFL team by team previews.

Beginning Monday, June 30, 2008, Matt vs. Matt will be issuing a daily preview of each NFL team with our insights, expectations and record predictions on all 30 professional squads (some appear to be semi-pro, but you get the drift).

We’ll be starting off with the AFC East next week. Then in successive weeks, we will move on to the AFC North, AFC South, and then the AFC West. The NFC will follow suit after that.

Just to tease Monday’s premiere of this new segment, I’ll be taking a look at the 2008 New England Patriots. Will they repeat with another undefeated regular season? Will Tom Brady and Randy Moss continue their rampage of their opponents’ passing defense? You’ll find out Monday.

Staggering NFL Fantasy QB comparisons

OK, so try this on for size. And I’ll preface by saying only one of the three quarterbacks I’m going to mention has ever played a down in the NFL, but still ESPN.com released it’s top 71 fantasy quarterback list based on potential and how much of an FFL impact QB’s will have on this fantasy season.

Well, three names stuck out in my mind down in the middle to lower pack on the list. Troy Smith (OSU alum, current Baltimore Ravens back-up), Chad Henne (uhh hummm…did he really graduate? after 12 years at Michigan?? and I might add, he somehow got drafted early on by Miami  for some unknown reason), and Brian Brohm (the former Louisville star and current GB Packers draftee for QB of the future).

I want you to take a look at those three names again and think of all the QBs in the NFL and then rank those three somewhere between 1 and 71. OK, now that you’ve done that, I’ll fill you in on where ESPN.com ranked them. 41st Chad Henne, 42nd Troy Smith and finally 48th Brian Brohm. 

First of all, this is an abomination. Secondly, anyone in America that thinks Chad Henne has more upside than Troy Smith is insane. It’s actually embarrassing, considering Troy’s Buckeyes stomped Henne’s Wolverines in 2005-06 in back to back years. Troy showed a lot of potential when he got a few games under his belt last season for the Ravens. However, it appears he’s not even getting serious consideration for the top back-up spot this season as they  drafted Joe Flacco and already have Kyle Boller.  (thankfully Steve McNair retired when he did). 

 Even more mind boggling (at least for me) is that Brohm is ranked even lower than Henne/Smith. Brohm could give Aaron Rodgers a serious run for starting QB in Green Bay. Yet apparently I’m one of the few people who expect him to be stellar, even if called upon to play this season. I’ve already had a dream that Aaron Rodgers gets hurt at some point in the first few games of the season and then Brett Favre is reborn through Brian Brohm as he finishes the year in great fashion and then takes off from there as the Pack’s QB of the future…now.

Preseason NCAA top-25

Listen, if we’re going to let computers decide a national championship based on ridiculous things, MattVsMatt can do a top-25 poll.

Okay, quick sidebar, here’s my Trev Albert Memorial list of NCAA poll annoyances:

1. Team A is ranked #2 and beats Team B which is ranked #10.  Team B then falls to #15, loses another game and falls to #20, and suddenly Team A is only getting credit for beating a #20 team rather than a #10 team.  What the heck is the point of strength of schedule being part of the equation when the simple act of beating a team hurts that part of the equation?  I will never understand why we think giving computers dumb equations is a good way to pick the national title winner.

2. What’s a guy gotta do to gain points in the polls?  Last year Ohio State was favored over Northwestern by something like 21 points, won by something like 28 points and somehow managed to LOSE points in the polls.  (honestly, I don’t know the numbers, but I remember they beat the spread and lost points).  Yes we can all talk about the conference and non conference schedules at this point – and Ohio State should get major props for teeing it up against USC this season.  But, once the games start, the team can’t do anything about that.  They can only do what they can do: win, win big, and win consistently.  If they’re doing that there’s no reason a blow out win that beats the spread should hurt the team no matter who the opponent is that week.

Anyway, MattJ and I have put together a preseason top-25 list.  I’m just teasing it today, you’ll have to stay tuned to see the actual list.  But, it was an interesting experience.  There was no way MattJ and MattD were going to come to an agreement, so we each ranked our top 25, we gave #1 25 points, #2 24 points, etc.  We tallied the teams and got our list.

Some interesting notes until the big unveiling:

-We agree on 19 of our top 25 teams, each putting in 6 teams not on the other person’s list.

-We didn’t place a single team in the same spot on our lists…. no unanimous #1 on this list.

-the largest difference was 19 spots (I have a team ranked #7 that MattJ didn’t rank at all)

-The other major discrepancies are 9 and 10 spots difference.

Now, we’re not going to be like the AP or coaches cloaked in secrecy.  When the preseason list gets released, we’ll try to defend our votes and let you have your say as well.  So, if you disagree with my putting Appalachian State #1, get your typing fingers ready… (just kidding, but the Michigan honeymoon at App State hasn’t worn off yet).

Opening week games of note…college style

After perusing the opening slate of college games set for the first Saturday of the college football season, a couple games just jumped out and said ‘HELLO!” I already mentioned in a previous post that the season officially starts on 8/28/08 with a Thursday docket of games. However, none of those pose as interesting a matchup as these two affairs set for 8/30/08:

USC at Virginia and Hawaii at Florida.

First of all the combined travel miles for USC and Hawaii for these two games is mind boggling. Does anyone remember USC’s last trip completely across the country to the East coast? I don’t either. I would say their Orange Bowl appearance against Iowa around 5-6 six ago would be the most recent cross-country trip. The game itself probably will be a rout but it’s still an intriguing game on this opening weekend.

Hawaii playing at Florida is similar in both scenarios as well. I would expect a total annhilation by Florida as Hawaii lost its all-world quarterback and most of the receivers who saw playing time. Plus, did I mention it’s a long trip from the PACIFIC OCEAN to Gainesville, Fla.??? Wow.

My prediction would be that at least one of the two (USC or Florida), if not both, will hit the 50 point plateau in these contests.

Other games of note for the remainder of the first week of college football are:

Kentucky at Louisville on Sunday 8/31/08 (why don’t they hold off this rivalry game until later in the season anyway? Can you imagine OSU/Michigan or WVU/Pitt on the opening week of the season? I can’t). We also have Tennessee at UCLA to close out the opening slate of games on Monday, 9/1/08.  That will be an interesting game.

Fantasy Football involves luck and bombs…

Well, first off, let me just say that I have had a rather up and down fantasy football career. I’ve finished first place a couple times. I’ve finished dead last, once. And, I’ve finished in the middle of the pack. Yet, most of the time, fantasy sports, football in particular, basically comes down to two elements in order to field a successful team: Good health and Mad skills.

I’ve had some great trades over the years including one in 2006 after a couple weeks into the season where I obtained Larry Johnson. He went on to have a breakout year. Can you say mad skills?

In another league, I also had Reggie Bush in 2006. He was basically a miserable failure until the final month of the season.  Yes, mad skills, but poor coaching and Reggie’s slow development kept him back in 2006.

Then onto Daunte Culpepper. Yes, he used to be bowty bowty. But now he’s just a has-been QB who won’t ever be consistently anything close to what he was with Randy Moss in Minnesota a few years back. Unfortunately I found this out when I drafted him as my number one QB a couple years ago when he ended up tearing up his knee and had twice as many INTs as TDs. Poor health doomed not only him, but my fantasy team that year.

This all leads me to say that no matter how much someone likes to think they are a master of fantasy football, it all depends on two things: Good health and Mad skills. You must have both on your side during the FFL season to be a success. Sometimes things work out. Sometimes they don’t. Even if a star gets hurt, you must be savvy enough to find a decent replacement for him. Good luck and get those draft boards ready. The FFL draft season will begin in about another month or so.

Buckeye recruits

First off, how great is it to see those 3, 4, and 5 star recruits committing to Ohio State for 2009?

In case you missed it, the following guys have brought the Buckeye verbal commitment number to 21:

4-star cornerback Corey Brown from PA (Take that JoePa)
4-star fullback Carlos Hyde out of Florida (Take that Urban)
4-star cornerback Justin Green out of Kentucky (Take that Rick Pitino… I don’t know any football people besides Tim Couch and I’m not we can call him a football person)
4-star wide receiver Duron Carter out of Florida. Son of Cris Carter.

Out of the 21 verbals, Scout.com ranks three as 5-star, twelve as 4-star, and six as 3-star.

The class isn’t getting much bigger – two or three more, I think, max – but it is impressive how quickly the quality class has come together.

So, let’s all put our hands together, pray to Brutus, invoke Woody Hayes’ name and hope the verbals hold up.

O-H…

Is it football season yet?

Well, well, well. It’s June 23, 2008, a date that will surely live in infamy. Yes the Matt vs. Matt blog is now up and running. Instead of sharing any history up front (I’ll let the other Matt share some of that if he wants), I’m ready to rock and roll with my first blogging of the summer of ‘08.

Just for anyone actually reading this (this far away from football season), I went ahead and jotted down (for myself) the start dates of the NFL and NCAA seasons. Figured I’d share some news/notes regarding the opening weeks of college and pro ball.

First off, the college football season premieres on Thursday, August 28th with a slew of off-beat match-ups that if they were played on a Saturday in November, no one would care. But since these games are the first of the ‘08 season, well, still mostly they suck, but football fans will still be pumped for some pigskin and will watch what is on TV. I’m guessing out of all the games lined up for that opening Thursday, the only three games that initially could matter at all will be Wake Forest at Baylor, Oregon St. at Stanford and then the NC State at South Carolina game which I am predicting will be the ESPN Thursday night season opener in a decent ACC/SEC opener. I know you are curious, so you can check out the other games scheduled for 8/28/08 on http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/schedules

As for the NFL opener, most die-hard fans already would know that the Redskins open the 2008 season with a Thursday night tangle with the Jints (NY Giants for those not affiliated with NYC football). The date is 9/4/08. This game is a continuance of what started 3-4 years ago and naturally will feature some annoying pop or rap singers spouting out rhymes on the streets of NYC and all the Ryan Seacrest-led annoying fanfair leading up to kick-off. The opener is followed with a full slate of NFL games on 9/7/08 and then lastly on 9/8/08 we have the Monday Night Football doubleheader with the Vikings/Packers in the early game and Denver/Oakland in the late game. You can check out the full schedule here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/schedule

Well, this post is running a little lengthy, so I will stop here. I’ll be back with a new segment soon. Very soon.

I’d like to give a big shout out to Matt for getting this all jumpstarted and soon enough we’ll be starting the 2008 seasons!!