That pesky preseason top 25

Yeah,  it’s been over on that sidebar all this time.  Let’s do some math and see how we did.  And, yeah, I’m using the AP poll because it’s better for Ohio State.  Blogger’s prerogative.

MattVsMatt Preseason top 25 (actually, # off the mark in parantheses)

1. Ohio State (9; -8)
2. USC (3; -1)
3. Florida (1; +2)
4. Georgia (13; -9)
5. Oklahoma (5; CORRECT!)
6. LSU (NR – 28 if you count the “others receiving votes; -22)
7. Missouri (19; -12)
8. WVU (23; -15)
9. Auburn (NR; Ouch.)
10 (tie). Texas (4; +6)
10 (tie). Tennessee (NR; not only not ranked, but Lane Kiffin is their coach…)
12. Kansas (NR – 37th if you count other votes; -25)
13 (tie). VA Tech (15; -2)
13 (tie). Wisconsin (NR; they were embarrassing, bring back Barry Alvarez)
15. Clemson (NR; did they even play football this year?)
16. Illinois (NR; Ron Zook’s days are numbered)
17. Texas Tech (12; +5)
18. Alabama (6; +12)
19. Notre Dame (NR; There’s always next year)
20. Oregon (10; +10)
21 (tie). BC (NR – 33 if you count other votes; -12)
21 (tie). BYU (25; -4)
21 (tie). Penn St. (8; +13)
24. Florida State (21; -3)
25. South Carolina (NR; but that spurrier guy is awesome!)

The highest ranked team that didn’t make the prestigious MattVsMatt preseason top 25?  Yup, #2 Utah.  I hope the AG doesn’t sue us too for cheating his state…

Others we missed: #7 TCU, #11 Boise State, #14 Mississippi, #16 Oklahoma State, #17 Cincy, #18 Oregon State, #20 Iowa, #22 Georgia Tech, #24 Michigan State.

I think we did alright, actually.  Considering I thought utah, TCU, Boise, Miss, OK State and Georgia Tech played in the I-AA subdivision, we didn’t do too bad.

Week 14: Da Picks

The season is winding down. So naturally this will be the final week of regular college games on our picks list. Looking down the road, Matt and I will have our progressive bowl game picks weekly once they are set to begin. Those will go along with our weekly NFL picks.

Matt has racked his brain hard over the past month and come up with a solid string of weekly picks to make this a one-game difference in the overall standings through 13 full weeks on the job:

Matt: 76-65-1

Matty J: 77-64-1

NCAA

South Florida at WVU (-7.5). This one is tough. After personally viewing the ‘Eers erosion in Pittsburgh last week, it’s hard to pick them to win anything. And South Florida has had WVU’s number the past two years. Should be an interesting game. Well, I had a whole big write-up about this game but somehow it didn’t get saved right. Oh well. No way WVU covers this spread vs. a team they have failed to beat the past two years. USF 31, WVU 28.

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Oklahoma (-17) vs. Missouri. Big 12 Title Game Naturally Oklahoma is favored by a billion points and rightfully so. They have manhandled just about everyone they’ve played but Texas and that was so far back apparently no pollsters remember they lost to the Longhorns. Oklahoma apparently has something to prove so they will slaughter Missouri, just like they did last year. Sometimes the Big 12 Title game has shocked us with the underdog winning in surprising fashion. Not this time. Oklahoma 50, Mizzou 31.

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Va. Tech (-3.5)  vs. Boston College. ACC Title Game This should be renamed the ‘Has Been, Who Cares Bowl’ brought to you by South Pole Heating and Cooling. The ACC is so bad when ranked teams played unranked teams within their own conference, they were only 4-13 against the unranked squads. These two teams have been unranked most of the year and somehow managed to have a hot late season stretch that led them to this matchup. You just don’t know what you’re gonna get with either of these teams. BC 27, Va. Tech 20.

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Alabama vs. Florida (-10) SEC Title Game. Now here’s a daggone game I want to see. However, I will be in Wheeling, WV, tomorrow, so I won’t probably see much at all since this is a middle of the afternoon 4 p.m. game. I am pushing hard for Florida. They are kind of like Oklahoma with a lot to prove and I expect them to prove it here in the SEC title game. I’m taking the Gators to win, but considering ‘Bama has yet to lose this year, I find it hard to believe this is a 10 point spread. Florida 17, Alabama 16.

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Army vs. Navy (-11). I am a fan of nostalgia, but this game has been terrible in recent years. Ok, pretty much every year in the past 20 years. Fact is Army just isn’t very good. Navy rolls. Navy 33, Army 17.

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NFL

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Houston at Green Bay (-6). The way the Packers have played in the past month, they are kind of like, gulp, WVU. It’s hard to pick them to beat anybody. On the other hand, Houston started the year out in horrible fashion and are now tied with the Pack at 5-7 on the year. Houston though isn’t very good on the road. Green Bay 34, Houston 27.

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NY Jets (-4) at San Francisco. Let’s just say Brett Favre doesn’t have a lot of great memories stemming from too many games out in Frisco. There’s one game that Matt likes to remind me off all the time from a long, long time ago when Terrell Owens actually was able to catch the ball on a routine basis. I, however, have tried to forget said game. The Jets need this game more than SF does to keep their standing not only in the division but within the AFC ranks. It’s hard for me to pick Favre on the road but I think the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets just have to win this game, so NY Jets 27, SF 20.

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Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7). The Giants appear to be playing better without Plaxico. Guess that’s a good thing considering he’s done for the year now. McNabb did a little better last week against a pathetic Cards defense. They don’t compare though to NYG’s pass rush and secondary. The Giants won in Philly a few weeks ago. Surely they won’t lose at home. Jints win. NY Giants 27, Philly 17.

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Dallas at Pittsburgh. (-3) This should be a great game to watch. Brings back the old rivalry from the 70s, not that many of you reading this will remember anything from the 70s, but… Anywhoo, if Pittsburgh’s defense plays like it did vs. the Pats last week, Romo is going to have a long day. Now as of today, it appears Marion Barber III is not going to play Sunday. Pittsburgh 27, Dallas 21

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Tampa Bay at Carolina (-3) (MNF). Can anyone in America believe these two teams are both 9-3 and tied for the second best record in the NFC??? Me neither. These teams seem like they are unbeatable at home, but when you get them on the road, they aren’t so good.  Carolina surprised me with their come-from-behind win on the road at Green Bay last week. They may be for real after all. I’m taking Carolina in a tight one. Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 21.

NCAA

South Florida at WVU (-7.5) You’d think WVU would handle this kind of game.  Wouldn’t you?  Both of these teams are horrible, despite winning records.  Both are 7-4, both have had some good games and some pathetic performances.  Unfortunately, USF’s offense hasn’t shown up for a game in a month.  This is a substantial spread in a WVU game, and I have no faith in a team led by Stewart, but I’m not feeling USF in this one so I’ll take WVU to cover.

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Oklahoma (-17) vs. Missouri. Big 12 Title Game Oklahoma smokes Missouri.  Remember when the Missouri QB made Heisman lists?  I can’t even remember his name now.  I hate the 17 points, but … OK covers.

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Va. Tech vs. Boston College (-1)  ACC Title Game This is a hard one because neither team is very good.  VA Tech already lost to BC, neither team scores a bunch of points and it could be an FG that makes the difference.  I’m taking BC to win, so I guess they’ll cover the one big point.

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Alabama vs. Florida (-10) SEC Title Game. Man, what a game.   Both teams have a ton to prove, both teams are playing for a national title game berth, and both teams are high flying offenses.  But, only one of the teams is unbeaten.  Florida is pretty daggone impressive right now, but I think Alabama might just win.  In any event, they beat the spread.

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Army vs. Navy (-11). Ah, the Army/Navy game.  Good memories here.  Matter of fact, if I didn’t have a Christmas party this Saturday I’d be going to an Army/Navy game fundraiser in Columbus to take in this great game.  I’ve been a Navy fan since about the 6th grade when I was considering the Naval Academy as a school/career option.  Then I gained (I used to say 300, but now it’s…) 200 pounds and that was out of the question.  Still watch this game every year though, and still cheer for Navy to get the job done.  I think Navy covers with win #7 in a row, another Commander-in-Chief’s Cup and an 8-4 record.  Go Midshipmen.

NFL

Houston at Green Bay (-6). Green Bay covers.  There’s not a lot to say here.  Adverse weather, the Texans, and Lambeau in December.

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NY Jets (-4) at San Francisco.  I’d really like this to be a 49er victory, especially since NO ONE thinks they’re going to win.  But, I’m a realist… especially with Shovel pass Shaun Hill in the backfield.  I’ll take NY to cover and stay ahead of the Pats in the division.

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Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7). Not exactly the matchup one might expect from Philly/Giants in week 14.  Giants continue to roll, it’s just not possible to pick against them at this point.  A 7 point spread is dumb, and Vegas should knock it off, but I’ll take the Gs of NY to cover.

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Dallas at Pittsburgh. (-3) Pitt is favored?  Really?  It will be sloppy and there’s a December advantage to Heinz Field, but Dallas isn’t the same team they were a couple weeks ago.  Barber may go, Romo is playing well, and the line is holding their own.  I’ll take Dallas to beat the spread.

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Tampa Bay at Carolina (-3) (MNF).  Wow.  Tampa Bay/Carolina.  Week 14.  MNF.  And it matters.  That’s some crazy stuff.  How are these teams doing well?  Who’s the starting QB in Tampa Bay?  Did Trent Dilfer come back and I missed the memo?  Tampa Bay beat Carolina big last time, and I’m not sure anything has changed in the dynamic so I’m taking TB to beat the spread.

Week 13: lucky or unlucky?? Guess we’ll see…

Well, we’re back and with another edition of the picks. This time involves our Thanksgiving holiday installment. Since all three games on Thanksgiving in the NFL are terrible, we only decided to go with one, the biggest on-paper mismatch: 10-1 Tennessee at 0-11 Detroit. Fun times. Should be interesting to see how that one goes. I was hoping for an unbeaten vs. winless game but the Titans had to fail miserably vs. the Jets this past Sunday. Oh well.

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No Ohio State game this week as they are through until we go bowling in another month or so. WVU gets the Friday afternoon special at noon in Pittsburgh and this just in: I’m going to be in attendance, Lord willing. I was hoping for this to be a bigger game but thanks to Pitt’s loss to Cincy last week, it kind of lost a little bit of its luster. WVU can still tie for the Big East conference title or win it out right if Syracuse pulls its second consecutive upset with a win over the Bearcats Saturday (and no, I’m not holding my breath on that one).

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12 weeks into the season, here’s how the standings look:

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Matt: 69-62-1

Matty J: 71-60-1

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Without further adieu:

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NCAA:

WVU (-3) at Pitt (Friday, noon). Well, first things first. I’ll be in attendance at this game and I’m not going to this game thinking WVU can’t win. Based on last year’s performance (13-9 loss at WVU), frankly they can’t play any worse, so I’m hoping for a nice win to come out of this road trip. WVU 26, Pitt 21

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Notre Dame at USC (-28.5). I’m guessing USC will come to play and will also dominate this game. Don’t really care who wins though. USC 48, Notre Dame 17.

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Oklahoma (-7.5) at Oklahoma State. My how I’d like to see Oklahoma lose this game. Something tells me though they are here to stay and will play well from here on out. Oklahoma 41, OK State 28

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Florida (-15.5) at Florida State. Florida State is just like Notre Dame and WVU. You just never know how they are going to play. I made the mistake of picking FSU to beat the spread last year. Not this year. Florida 38, FSU 20.

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Oregon at Oregon State (-3). My upset special. Oregon wins. USC goes to the Rose Bowl and kills Penn St. And thanks to the Oregon State loss, Ohio State will sneak into the BCS. Thanks Beavers! Oregon 31, Oregon St. 27

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NFL

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Thanksgiving Day:

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Tennessee (10-1) (-11) at Detroit (0-11)…fun stuff here. Who’d have thunk these two teams would be so mismatched 11 weeks into the NFL season. Even worse for Detroit is they have the worst rush defense in the league. Tennessee has one of the top five rushing offenses led by Chris Johnson and LenDale White.  Tennessee is going to have a good day putting points on the board. Tennessee 41, Detroit 17.

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Sunday:

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San Francisco at Buffalo (-7) Could be cold and snowy in Buffalo for this one. SF doesn’t travel well and the Bills finally found their offense again last week in KC. Buffalo 33, SF 21

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Carolina at Green Bay (-3). Green Bay has to have this game. If they lose, they are done. 5-7 just would not cut it for Aaron Rodgers especially considering Brett Favre is 8-3 so far with the Jets. I think GB covers here though. Green Bay 27, Carolina 23.
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NY Giants (-3) at Washington. Washington is a rather unpredictable team. They have beaten Philly and Dallas on the road. They unimaginably lost to St. Louis at home. I’m guessing the Jints will cover here though. NY Giants 31, Washington 24.

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Pittsburgh at New England (-1) Pittsburgh is just too inconsistent. Matt Cassel finally found out last week that it does pay off to pass the daggone ball to Randy Moss. New England wins. New England 24, Pittsburgh 20.

NCAA:

WVU (-3) at Pitt. Well this game certainly mattered more last year than it did this year, didn’t it?  Remember coach crutches running up and down the field rallying his Pitt Panthers to a big win over BCS title game-bound WVU?  Pitt wins, WVU is in the title game, RiRod is in Morgantown and Bill Stewart is in a corner someplace mumbling to himself.  How things change!  Well, except for the part about Bill Stewart in a corner mumbling to himself (see what I did there?)  This year the game is at Pitt.  The panthers have some quality wins.  If it was anyone else I’d say WVU would be mad about last year and use that as motivation, but with Bill Stewart in charge, they probably made snickerdoodles for the panther team in hopes that they can all be friends.  I think Pitt wins this game, so I’ll take them to beat the spread.

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Notre Dame at USC (-28.5). Golly, I’d really like to take ND in this game.  28.5 is a big spread, it’s a rivalry game which tend to stay close, and I hate USC.  But, it’s the 2008 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and they’re abysmal.  Inconsistency and poor fundamentals have plagued this team.  I’m shaking my head and sighing as I do this, but I’ll take USC to cover.

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Oklahoma (-7.5) at Oklahoma State. There are some teams playing great ball right now, and Oklahoma is one of them.  Did they use all their steam up against Texas Tech?  I say no, and I’ll take the Sooners to cover the 7.5.  If this was 10.5 I’d think twice, but Oklahoma appears to be rolling.

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Florida (-15.5) at Florida State. This rivalry isn’t what it used to be.  Florida State/Miami would actually be a better game.  I’ll take Florida to cover on the road.

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Oregon at Oregon State (-3). Good game.  Lots for Oregon State to lose here, but I think they win it and cover – they’ll head out to the Rose Bowl to take on the Nittany Lions.

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NFL

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Thanksgiving Day:

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Tennessee (10-1) (-11) at Detroit (0-11) -11 is a big spread in the NFL even for a 10-1 vs. 0-11 matchup.  Tennessee looks to rebound from the Jets lose, and Detroit looks to… eat dinner?  I dunno, what they’re looking at in Detroit.  I think the Ford family keeps the Lions so they can say “The auto industry isn’t so bad right now.  Sure we’re losing billions, can’t sell cars and need a bailout – but look at the Lions!”  I’m taking Tennessee to cover.

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Sunday:

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San Francisco at Buffalo (-7) I’ll take San Fran to beat this spread.  I’m feel like I’m on a sinking ship, but what can you do?  Until the team drafts Joe Montana’s kid, I’m pretty much just taking them out of pity.

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Carolina at Green Bay (-3). This is one of those games I look at and I don’t have a solid gut reaction either way.  The numbers point to the Panthers – they’ve got a better record and GB hasn’t had the Lambeau luck this year (only 3-2 at home).  Plus, the Packers looked downright pitiful against the Saints.  But, Delhomme isn’t going to be named to any all-pro lists this year, and I’m sure the defense has some time to mull over their pathetic performance.  I’ll take the Packers to win and cover.
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NY Giants (-3) at Washington. Giants.  I’m picking them until they prove me wrong… might just ride them all the way to the super bowl, they actually look like they belong there this year.

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Pittsburgh at New England (-1) Pats win/cover – matter of fact, I think they win big.  It helps that it’s in NE, but Cassell is warming up, and Pittsburgh’s offense continues to do just enough to win against average teams, and I think NE is above average.

Week 13 Picks: A full slate and then some

This week there are so many good college games, Matt and I decided to go with 11 total games instead of 10 on our weekly picks list. The NFL has some so-so games but this should be a banner week in NCAA action and will go a long way towards how the BCS Bowls turn out in January 2009.

After 12 full weeks, here’s how close the race between Mat and I has become:

Matt: 65-56-1

Matty J: 67-54-1

Without further adieu, here we go:

NCAA:

Michigan at Ohio State (-20.5). We have the 3-8 blundering Wolverines vs. the 9-2 Buckeyes who even with that solid record, have been a disappointment. However, making OSU this much of a substantial favorite may not be the best thing for the Bucks. I have a good and bad feeling about this game. I’ve seen Michigan lose to a MAC school, Northwestern and just generally be pathetic all year. I’ve also seen the Buckeyes pretty much do well against everyone but Penn State and USC. So my thinking is that OSU will come out and play a good game. It would be nice if we get some snowy, cold weather in the Shoe Saturday and I’d just about guarantee a Buckeye victoray a la last year when Beanie ran for over 200 yds. That said, Michigan’s defense will come out pumped up and probably be good enough to avoid getting beat by this large of a spread. OSU 27, Michigan 13.

WVU (-7) at Louisville. WVU is an anomaly this year. You never know how they’re going to come out and play week to week. They put up 34-17 and 35-13 wins over Auburn (mind you Georgia only beat the Tigers 17-13 last week) and Connecticut, yet dropped mind-numbing games to East Carolina (24-3) and Colorado (17-14 overtime). Talk about a box of chocolates. Bucky Stewart never knows what he’s going to get week in, week out with the ‘Eers. Each week he begins by figuring out which guys to suspend due to stupid actions off the field prior to figuring out the starting lineups. I thought Louisville could take Cincinnati at home last week but the weather/rain hurt their passing game and the cards lost 28-20. WVU has to win this game but it’ll probably go down to the wire. WVU 24, Louisville 20.

Cincinnati (-5) at Pittsburgh. Fact is this: this is a must-win for Pitt if they want a chance to win the Big East title. (It would also help WVU significantly if Pitt wins this game) It’s simple. If Cincy wins, they’re going to win their first-ever Big East championship because they only have Syracuse left on their schedule and the Bearcats would at worst tie with WVU with one loss in conference play (but having beaten WVU they would win the BCS bowl bid). If Pitt wins and WVU manages to beat Louisville, that will set up a game for ‘all the marbles’ on 11/28/08 (day after Thanksgiving) for the Big East title as Pitt and WVU would be the only one loss teams left at 4-1 in the conference while Cincy/UConn/Rutgers would all have two losses and would pretty much be eliminated from any title hopes. Go Pitt! Pittsburgh 30, Cincinnati 23

Syracuse at Notre Dame (-19.5). Syracuse may be dangerous this week. They got a huge monkey off their back this week when Greg Robinson was fired. Am I going to pick them to cover? Well….no. Notre Dame 31, Syracuse 14.

Michigan State at Penn State (-14.5). Can’t believe PSU is favored by more than two Tds. This should be a heckuva game and possibly be played in horrible winter weather. The primary strength PSU has over MSU is having a duel-threat offense vs. MSU’s heavily slanted run-oriented offense behind Javon Ringer. I’m hoping, no, praying for an MSU win so Ohio State can clinch the Big Ten title and the automatic BCS berth. Both of these teams are unpredictable. PSU lost to Iowa. Ohio State made MSU look like cannon fodder in their matchup. I’m going for it. Michigan State 24, Penn St. 21.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7) With a #2 vs. #5 matchup, we had to include this game as our bonus pick of the week. I’m on the Red Raider bandwagon. I’m tired of the Texas’s and Oklahomas getting all the attention in the Big 12. Hopefully TT will represent and take this one so we don’t have to have a huge debate over who’s better: Texas or Oklahoma? Fact is Texas dominated Oklahoma so this shouldn’t even be a debate but thanks to the BCS and the ‘who lost earlier in the season’ criteria, Oklahoma will probably get the nod if they manage to knock of the undefeated Red Raiders. Texas Tech 36, Oklahoma 33.

NFL:

San Francisco at Dallas (-10). Don’t know if I can bite on a spread this large. Seems like no one covers big spreads in the NFL any longer. But heck, this is San Fran and they are terrible (sorry Matt). And this is Dallas who N-E-E-D-S this game desperately to get back into the playoff hunt. There are a lot of good 5-5/6-4 teams in the NFC this year so the Cowboys are going to need to string together some wins to get back into playoff contention for a wild card berth.  I can see a blowout here. Dallas 34, SF 17.

New England at Miami (-2.5). I’m not sure I can pick the Pats after they got smashed, no, annhilated at home vs. Miami earlier in the year. Sure Matt Cassel has a few games under his belt, but no he’s still not getting to pass the ball downfield to Randy Moss. That was this team’s bread and butter in their 18-0 roll last year. Moss has got to be fuming from this season’s turn of events. Then again Big Bill is probably also fuming for the early season blowout his team suffered to the Dolphins. Pats beat the spread? New England 24, Miami 21.

NY Jets at Tennessee (-5.5). Tennesee has showed some character and oomph the past couple weeks in staunch tests from the Bears and the Jags. They could have easily lost either one of those contests. Now at 10-0, will they be able to stop the high-flying J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? The way Tennessee has fought back and won the past two weeks, they should win this game. Plus it’s at home and surely they can get 2 or 3 intereceptions out of Brett Favre. Tennessee 27, NY Jets 21.

Indianapolis at San Diego (-3) (SNF). This game was Peyton Manning’s worst game as a pro last year, yet the Colts still almost pulled the game out. If memory serves me right, I believe Manning had six interceptions against the Bolts and the team played poorly overall, yet if it weren’t for a missed FG they could have won. San Diego is majorly underachieving this year. Indy 31, SD 30

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5) (MNF). Go Pack! Go! I’m loving this game alraedy. For FFL reasons, anyone with Brees, Colston, Bush/McCallister, Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, etc, will be in store for a nice evening of football on Monday Night. This game seriously could end up 42-40 with the offensive firepower involved. This one’s easy. Green Bay 37, New Orleans 33.

So I’m making a drive to see the family in Vermont, but there’s this kind of important football game this weekend so I’m actually leaving a day early so I can be comfortably in front of the TV (with a nice chocolate diet shake in hand… mmm.mmm.good) for the Ohio State/Michigan game.  I love that the game is all-consuming to the point where it affects events, travel schedules and other non-football related activities.

By the by – the best Michigan joke I’ve heard this year because it’s really specific to this season is: Did you hear the game got canceled?  Yeah, turns out Michigan can’t get past Toledo.

On that note, here’s some picks.

NCAA:

Michigan at Ohio State (-20.5). Okay, when I found out this spread was 20.5 I emailed Joy that there was no way I could pick against Ohio State in the Michigan game.  This is why I’m not a real-money gambler.  Picking against a ridiculous spread in the Ohio U. game is one thing, but picking against the Buckeyes in this matchup just isn’t going to happen.  I am worried through.  I’d be comfortable with maybe 13 points.  Two TDs,  that sort of thing.  Regardless of comfort level, it’s Buckeye week and I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover and bring home win #10.  Fun side note: 12 Michigan coaches have faced Ohio State during the rivalry.  They are 10-1-1 in their debuts.  Rich Rod could bring home the first debut loss in 79 years.  Now, THAT’S change I can believe in (election reference… just over two weeks late).  Go Bucks!

WVU (-7) at Louisville. This is like the Pitt game last year, except WVU sucks and no one cares.  I’ll take Louisville to beat the spread at home.  I hear Bill Stewart’s agent is meeting with High School teams.  Pastilong will actually pay HIM $4 million to break his contract.

Cincinnati (-5) at Pittsburgh. CIncy controls it’s destiny.  Pitt has played the spoiler before, but I think Cincy is taking home the Big East.  I’ll stay on that bandwagon and take Cincy to cover.

Syracuse at Notre Dame (-19.5). 19.5 points?  Really?  Syracuse is pitiful and is at least 3 recruiting classes (and therefore 3 graduated Robinson classes) from performing at any sort of level, but 19.5 points is big.  Charlie Weis pulled in the win against Navy, but didn’t look good doing it.  This spread will be reversed against USC unless ND wins by about 70 points.  Okay, I hate big spreads, I’m taking Syracuse to beat the spread.

Michigan State at Penn State (-14.5). I really want Michigan State to win this matchup for the sake of the Buckeyes.  They’re better than 14.5 point underdogs too.  This is another example of Ohio State getting no respect and Penn State getting the benefit of the doubt.  No talk about Michigan State’s offensive weapons in this one, like we had all week against the Buckeyes.  I’m going against Vegas again (never a good idea) and taking Michigan State to beat the spread.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7).  This is an epic matchup.  Everyone is taking Oklahoma because they have history.  Unfortunately, Jason White isn’t at the helm.  Both teams have prolific offenses and pretty solid defenses.  The OK defense is more beat up though, and hasn’t done as well against ranked opponents.  Texas Tech has a pretty short history of goodness, but they’ve really done well against ranked opponents this year.  They’ve beaten 3 straight ranked teams handily.  I’ll take Texas Tech to beat the spread.

NFL:

San Francisco at Dallas (-10). Okay, 10 points is a ridiculous spread in an NFL game, especially as the Cowboys sputter and San Fran put up a big offensive show last week.  I’m not prepared to pass the Montana mantle on to Shovel pass Shaun, but 10 points is crazy.  What, exactly, has Dallas done to show them worthy of that?  And after San Fran has been competitive recently (yes, even in the MNF game… even though it was painful to watch).  I’ll take San Fran to beat the spread.

New England at Miami (-2.5). Hahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahaaahahha.  New England beats the spread.

NY Jets at Tennessee (-5.5). Tennessee covers.  Dustin Keller makes no catches.

Indianapolis at San Diego (-3) (SNF). Hmmm…. two beat up offenses that are underperforming.  Two defenses that are less than stellar.  Home game out west for San Diego.  This one really could go either way, but I’ll take San Diego to cover at home.

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5) (MNF).  Another game where the teams appear to be evenly matched.  New Orleans can’t seem to get in a rhythm.  If Ryan Grant repeats his performance from last week, GB wins easily.  If it becomes a sling-fest, Drew Brees has to be favored against Rodgers.  I’m leaning towards GB here, but I really don’t have any good reasons.  I’ll take GB as another team to beat the spread.

Week 12: Matt is a happy camper

Well, Matt is a happy camper today for two reasons, well actually three. First of all, Syracuse finally fired Greg Robinson, albeit about three years too late. Secondly, San Fran won an NFL game in which they were favored (despite both Matt and I picking the Rams to beat the spread). And finally, because he finished a whopping 8-2 in the picks while I floundered again with a 5-5 effort. Although I’ll take 5-5 after finishing just 1-4 in college action Saturday. Geeminy. Matt was down by 10 games in the standings about three weeks ago. As I predicted, Matt was not done though. Now it’s a race much closer than Obama/McCain 2008, not that that one was close, but you know what I mean.

After 12 full weeks, the standings look like this:

Matt: 65-56-1

Matty J: 67-54-1

Fortunately, Blitzburgh’s late defensive TD did not count at the end of regulation as the Steelers only won 11-10 giving me the win, while Matt had picked the Steelers to cover. Had the Steelers covered, it would be an even tie in the standings at 66-55-1.

This week should be even more fun for Matt and I because it is Ohio State/Michigan week and WVU also has a big game against Louisville on the road. Cincinnati also travels to Pitt so the Big East will start to shake out a little bit this week depending on how WVU/Cincy/Pitt fare this weekend.

We’ll have a full docket of games as per the usual on Friday. So don’t miss it.

So I haven’t been as active on the blog as I would have liked thanks to some busy work through the first half of football season, but I knew last night I’d have to leave some comments about this week in football.  “Happy camper” isn’t a horrible description of how I’m feeling, but I’ve still managed to find the annoyances in an 8-2 week.

1. First, did you catch the end of the Pittsburgh game – it was worse than just that last call for me?  I was on a conference call, so the game was on mute in the background.  First, I see Willie Packer score with 21 seconds left, the steelers go up by 5.  Awesome, another covered spread.  Wait, there’s a yellow hanky on the field and it’s called back for holding.  Field goal.  Spread not covered. Daggone it.

Then you get the laterals, fumble, and return for TD, and official review.  Now, again, I’m watching on mute.  All I see is an annoyed Norv Turner and the official giving the TD sign.  Again, yes!  TD, spread covered.  That’s all I think about it for a while until I’m watching the Sunday Night game and I see the scores from the day and the Steelers game is listed at 11-10 final.  Wait, 11-10?  What?  A quick trip to ESPN.com reveals that somehow the official signaling TD after the review actually meant forward pass, no TD.  Of course, that’s what the TD signal meant… I’m a dope for not understanding that.

Good.  Grief.  I’ve got heartburn over it, so I can imagine how ticked off the people are who actually had money on the game and lost two opportunities to cover that spread.

2. I was a little hard on Shaun Hill.  I actually had the thought “what if the 9ers somehow pull out of a win” when I was writing my preview.  The thought, though, was never “what if the 49ers win by almost 3 TDS?”  That said, I remain a skeptic.  Despite a good game (first 49er QB to have a perfect passer rating through the first half), I don’t see how a QB could go from horrible, pitiful, and team-destroying play one week to decent play and leadership the next week.  Shovel Pass Shaun had a good game, you can’t deny it (even if you…I… want to).  I will reserve judgment, though, for another week or two because I’m still haunted by the MNF game.

3. I did go 5-0 on college games.  I think that’s the first time that’s happened, so that was fun.  I’m closing the gap on Joy, but I’m afraid I’m using up all my football picking karma early.  We’ll see.

4. Finally, it’s big game week.  Buckeyes/Michigan.  I’m driving to Vermont, and I’ve built my travel schedule around being able to get to VT by noontime on Saturday.  That said, I will not be overconfident about this game.  I’m already lowering expectations, and have pretty good precedent.  My high school football team had two wins on the season going into the 100 year plus rivalry game at the end of the year.  The opposing team was playoff-bound.  My high school pulled off the win and “salvaged” an otherwise disappointing season.  Sound like anyone else you know?  I’m ready for a Buckeye victory, but let’s just say that people shouldn’t go into Saturday with the high expectations of a 9-2 team against a 3-8 team – this rivalry levels the playing field in a huge way.

On to Week 12: Down the stretch we come

It was only about three short weeks ago, I had a whopping 10 game lead in the standings but here we are three weeks later and Matt has forged an expected comeback and trails me by only five games overall:

Matt: 57-54-1

Matty J: 62-49-1

However, it’s moving time in the picks express so this week I’m looking to get back above .500 and get back to work. I’m not wasting any time. Here we go:

NCAA:

Ohio State (-9.5) at Illinois. What a letdown this game has turned into be. Illinois losing to Western Michigan last week kind of makes this a downright travesty if OSU somehow manages to lose. However, I’m not expecting that to happen. Of course I didn’t expect the Buckeyes to lose to Illinois last year either. We’ll see which Buckeye unit shows up tomorrow. Illinois hasn’t been ‘up’ to play for much of anyone lately. They’ll be stoked for this game though. Ohio State 27, Illinois 21.

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Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Navy. Don’t foil me Navy. Just do your job and beat the daggone Irish spread!! Then I can do the Irish jig! Notre Dame 26, Navy 23.

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South Carolina at Florida (-21). Can you say Florida blowout? The Gators are definitely a team I would not want to face at this point in the year. Unless there is an unforeseen roadblock, I expect to see them in the BCS title game in January. I really hate picking teams with 21 point spreads involved. Florida, though, has blown out many a team this season. Will they be able to annhilate Spurrier’s Gamecocks in a hotly contested game? My guess is they’ll win but not by 21+. Florida 41, S. Carolina 21.

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Georgia (-8) at Auburn. Does anyone really care anymore? Georgia was way overhyped. Yes, I believe I predicted that. Auburn never even bit on the hype. They have been underachieving all year and frankly, Tommy’s days are numbered at this point. Georgia 31, Auburn 24

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Cincinnati (-3.5) at Louisville. This week’s Big East game of the week. Surely Cincinnati is not going to win the conference title this year. Right now they are tied with WVU and Pitt with 3-1 records in Big East play. I’m taking Louisville at home. The Big East is going to shake up a lot in the next couple of weeks starting with this game. Then more shakeups will occur with when Pitt travels to Cincinnati on 11/22, and WVU heads to Pitt on 11/28. Should make for a fun finish in the conference. Louisville 31, Cincinnati 26

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NFL

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Chicago at Green Bay (-4). I’m not liking how the NFC Norris is shaping up this season. Minnesota and Chicago are proving to the a growing force in the division, while Green Bay is massively underachieving, primarily due to a vanilla offense and a heavily injured defense. That said, I’m still taking the Pack. Green Bay 27, Chicago 23.

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St. Louis at San Francisco (-6). Go Rams. St. Louis 24, San Fran 21

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Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5). Jints win. Baltimore has been good at home but Flacco will be under heavy pressure all day in the Meadowlands. NY Giants 34, Baltimore 17

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San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4.5). Big Ben has hurt the Steelheads by playing hurt. The way Byron Leftwich performed against the ’skins leads me to believe he should be starting until The Roeth is back to 100%. Pittsburgh 34, San Diego 31.

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Dallas at Washington (-2). Romo is back and Clinton Portis probably won’t play. Too very big keys to this game. Dallas 30, Washington 21.

I’m still kind of mad about the MNF game. I haven’t had the heart to change my facebook status because I’m still feeling a bit of rage about Shovel-Pass-Shaun. I’m hoping it doesn’t carry over in the picks this week, but I gotta tell you I’m a bit on the pessimistic side this week.

Let’s see how this goes…

NCAA:

Ohio State (-9.5) at Illinois. Hmm… The giant killer from last year is one of the most disappointing teams in the conference this year. What happened to Zooker’s boys? I felt good last week with the Buckeyes and this is an even smaller spread, so I feel like I have to go with them again. Remember that pessimism I mentioned in the intro? I’m trying to overcome that. I like the way the Buckeyes performed last week at Northwestern, so I’m going to take Tressel’s boys to cover the spread in this one.

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Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. Navy. Isn’t this a glorious time of year? When Navy games matter? I know, I know – Navy isn’t relevant on a national scale. But there’s something about Navy-Notre Dame and Navy-Army that get me excited. Believe it or not, Navy is 6-3 while Notre Dame is 5-4. Unfortunately, they’re wildly inconsistent. They beat #16 Wake Forest and and Air Force, but lost to Ball State & Duke. Plus Notre Dame has a 397 game winning streak in this rivalry (seriously, I checked the numbers on that). This is one of those if/then games for me. I cheer for both teams every week, but if ND plays Navy, then I cheer for ND. I think the defense holds and Notre Dame gets bowl eligible. I’ll take ND to cover the spread. (Ps. Bonus stat: through 9 games Navy has attempted 60 passes. I love that. PPS. Navy has a dude named Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. I love that too.)

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South Carolina at Florida (-21). This matchup is a lot of fun because Mr. Gator himself Steve Spurrier brings his under-performing team back into Gainesville. Ironically, South Carolina’s defense is the only thing keeping this team in games. They haven’t given up more than 24 points, but they haven’t scored more than 34. I think Florida is probably the best offense they’ll see. Okay, I’m going against my gut here and I’ll take Florida to cover. They cleared 21 against their last five opponents including LSU and Georgia so I’ll take them to keep up the good work.

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Georgia (-8) at Auburn. Why is this only 8 points? Georgia is averaging over 35 per game. They’ve cleared 8 points in 6 of 8 wins. Then again, Auburn’s losses have been relatively close. I feel like Georgia will cover the 8, but I’m going against my gut on this one too. Auburn already broke my heart against West Virginia so I’ll get give them another chance to do it again – Auburn beats the spread.

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Cincinnati (-3.5) at Louisville. I picked this game because Louisville always plays the spoiler, but now that I’m having to pick I think I’m going to take Cincy. They looked good against West Virginia, so I’ll take Cincy to cover the three and a half.

NFL

Chicago at Green Bay (-4). This is always a fun wintertime matchup. Two cold weather teams beating the crap out of one another. Aaron Rodgers has unfortunately gone downhill as the season moved forward. Chicago may get Orton back (if Lovie let’s him in the game) and Matt Forte has made that team substantially better. It’s amazing how much a solid 4 yards per carry running back takes the pressure off an average at best QB. Need proof? Just look at Ryan Grant’s underperforming in GB. If Grant has last year’s numbers with Rodgers in the backfield and Green Bay wins these types of matchups going away. Okay, after all that I’ll take GB to win the matchup and cover the 4.

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St. Louis at San Francisco (-6). What game was Vegas watching on Monday night? Is Joe Montana coming back to start, because there is no way on earth a team helmed by Shovel-Pass-Shaun should be favored by 6 at home, on the road or on Mars. I would feel more confident if Ryan Leaf or Tim Couch made a comeback. I saw one blog try the “Shaun showed signs of greatness, despite the mistakes” thing. Puh-leez. Bad decisions, bad execution and bad clock management plague Shaun Hill’s pea brain. I didn’t revolt against Steve Young. I didn’t revolt against Elvis Grbac. I didn’t revolt against Jeff Garcia. I didn’t revolt against Ken Dorsey. I didn’t revolt against Tim Rattay. I didn’t revolt against Cody Pickett. I didn’t revolt against Alex Smith. I didn’t revolt against Trent Dilfer. I didn’t revolt against J.T. O’Sullivan. But I’m revolted by and revolting against Shaun Hill. (by the way, that roster of starters since Joe Montana made me throw up in my mouth). I’m taking the Rams to beat the spread in San Fran. Sorry Mike Singletary.

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Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5). Every week the pundits have the “who’s the best team” debate. No one seems able to accept that the Giants have put together a class franchise under the radar. They’re good, there’s no way around it. This is actually a good matchup – it will give the Giants a look at one of the better defenses in the league to see what they can do. I’ll take the Giants to cover – they’re warming up at home for those playoff games.

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San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4.5). Hmmm… Pittsburgher isn’t the team it was 4 or 5 weeks ago. Unfortunately, the Chargers D is pitiful. Let’s see – the Chargers have a good offense against a good defense in Pitt. Pitt has an average offense against a poor defense. I think Pittsburgher wins that matchup and covers, especially if it’s wet, cold and muddy at Ketchup Park.

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Dallas at Washington (-2). Romo is back, that has to give the Cowboys a step up. (I know, I know… they were underachieving when Romo was playing before getting a hang nail). This is a new beginning, it’s a must win in-division game. I’ll take the Cowboys to beat the spread.

Crystal Ball: Are there six wins for Matty J this week?

Through nine games, I managed five wins (5-4), while Matt eaked out six wins already (6-3). Only God knows if Arizona will cover the massive 9 point spread tonight vs. the hapless Shaun O’Sullivan Smith-led Niners in the desert. If they do, my prediction of a six win week will be fulfilled. If not, it’s another .500 week for me.

At this point, Matt has picked up another game in the standings, but we differ (obviously) on tonight’s prediction as he’s going with his fan favorite Niners to beat the spread vs. the Cards.

I would like to thank Notre Dame for not making the trip to the northeast and forfeiting to BC Saturday. (oh, they DID make the trip?!  ouch). Finally I foiled Notre Dame and not vice versa. That at least made me happy.

Naturally Ohio State also found a team they could whallop and did so convincingly 45-10 over the previously 25th ranked Northwestern Wildcats. Did anyone notice Tressel running up the score? Fake punt while leading 31-10. Scoring another TD with under a minute left to make it 45-10 instead of leaving it at 38-10? I know Tressel wasn’t planning on Boom Herron to make it all the way to the endzone on that final play making it 44-10 (prior to the extra point) but he could have just taken a knee. But, heck, who am I kidding? When any other team has the chance to score against the Bucks, they don’t generally slow down in the fourth quarter! Go Sweater Vest!

And last but not least, the Bill Stewart-uncoached WVU Mountaineers foiled themselves and Matt and I losing in OT at home Saturday to Cincinnati. WVU had a chance to go 4-0 and be outright 1st place shareholders in the pathetic Big East and failed miserably. Go figure. I couldn’t expect anything other than failure from Billy and the team after the two prior week’s bigtime wins. Oh well. We’ll really see what WVU is made of now with two consecutive road trips to Louisville, Pitt and then a home finale against South Florida.

Overall, here are the standings after almost a full 11 weeks of action:

Matt: 56-54-1

Matty J: 62-48-1

We still have several weeks to in NFL action and a few weeks left of the college football season, so I’m sure it’s going to end up coming down to the wire to see who can claim the first-ever Matt vs. Matt title.

Week Eleven: Can it get any worse?

I am getting kind of demoralized after finishing 7-13 in the past 2 weeks of picks. It has been a rather pathetic couple of weeks. Plus I even finally picked Notre Dame to cover and they managed to foil me again. On top of that, the daggone Redskins had a chance to at least allow Matt and I the pleasure of finishing .500 on the week at 5-5 on Monday Night, but they managed to fail miserably and lost 23-6 to the Steelers. Go figure.

Well, this week is going to be different. I’m going out on a limb right now and predicting at least 6 wins on my behalf. It’s going to be tough. But it’s going to happen. I promise. After 10 weeks of our picks, here’s how Matt and I stand so far:

Matt: 50-51-1 (4-6)

Matty J: 57-44-1 (4-6)

Without further adieu, here are this week’s matchups:

College games:

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3). I would never have said this about 10 weeks ago, but I’m a Texas Tech believer, at least for this week. I’m taking the Red Raiders at home. After a bye, we’ll see how truly battle-tested they are when they face Oklahoma. Texas Tech 38, OK State 34.

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Cincinnati at WVU (-7.5). WVU is starting to get on a roll. Essentially with wins over Cincy this week and Louisville next week, they could just about wrap up a Big East title (if Pitt loses to Louisville tomorrow.) All that said, the ‘Eers must take care of business this week first. This could be a great game. In primetime, I’m glad it’s in Mo-town. WVU 33, Cincinnati 27.

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Ohio State (-11) at Northwestern. Saw a ‘fun’ fact this week pertaining to games following a bye week under Tressel’s tenure. 1-4 record for the Buckeyes in these situations. Plus four of those five games were on the road. This game is also on the road. The Buckeyes rarely cover whether at home or on the road. OSU wins, but does not cover. OSU 30, NW 20.

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Notre Dame at Boston College (-3.5). BC covers. Nuff said. BC 27, ND 21. (side note: if BC manages to let ND foil me again. I’m also throwing BC in the ring with SF and ND as my all-time worst pick spoilers)

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Alabama (-3.5) at LSU. This could be the game where Alabama’s national title hopes go down the drain. The Tigers will be amped to take down their old coach and they get this game at home. Can’t believe ‘Bama is favored by 3.5. LSU 30, Alabama 27.

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NFL games:

Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5). Green Bay wins. Do I have to say anymore? Minnesota has been close to horrible this year, but somehow they are still 4-4 like the Packers who should have taken out Tennesee last week. The only thing that scares me is the Packers’ 27th rated rush defense. And they’ll get tested bigtime Sunday against A Pete. Green Bay 24, Minnesota 21.

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San Francisco at Arizona (-9) (MNF). I am starting to shy away from big spreads, but unfortunately SF is in the ‘ I can’t pick you ever again ‘ category in my book due to too many foilings on their part. It will make it even worse for Matt due to Kurt Warner’s resurgence in Arizona. He may throw for 400 yds in this one. Arizona 34, SF 17.

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Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-3). If Pittsburgh’s ‘D’ continues to play like it did last week, they may be Super Bowl bound no matter how badly beaten up Big Ben is. However, Pittsburgh is not a very consistent team. I’ll still take them though this week based on the Colts’ season-long slump. Pittsburgh 28, Indy 24.

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Tennessee (-3) at Chicago. If the Bears defense shows up and stops LenDale White and Chris Johnson, the Titans undefeated record will come to an end Sunday. However, if Kyle Orton doesn’t play, will Rex Grossman be able to lead the Bears to enough points to win? Amazingly I’m taking the Bears to win and beat this spread. The Titans have to lose sometime and undefeated teams never seem to lose to the teams people expect them to. Tennessee is expected to win. Chicago 24, Tennessee 16.

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NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5). Seems like interdivisional matchups in the NFC East almost always have traditionally gone to the home teams. However, Washington did go on the road and beat Dallas and Philly already this year. Why not the Jints this week? NY Giants 20, Philadelphia 17.

I haven’t been very speedy with updates lately.  I meant to do a St. Johnsbury Academy update a couple weeks back, but an election kept getting in the way.  Anyway, quick update of games this week.  I’ll be back into the swing of my normal “at-least-I-make-myself-laugh” updates next week.

College games:

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3). Texas Tech looked good against Texas.  Potential let down game here, but it certainly looks like they’re the real deal.  I’ll take the Red Raiders to cover versus “I’m a man” and his OK State okie dokies.

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Cincinnati at WVU (-7.5). Hmm… WVU starting to gain respect after a couple wins.  That’s annoying.  Cincy doesn’t really scare me this year.  I haven’t seen much about them.  I think I’ll take the safe bet – the team whose QB corps doesn’t have a sprained ankle, broken leg and broken arm combined.  WVU covers the 7.5.

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Ohio State (-11) at Northwestern. Buckeyes win and cover. I heard a bit of Coach Tressel’s radio show this week and he re-assured me.  Beanie has a big game and the buckeyes win by 2 or 7 TDs.

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Notre Dame at Boston College (-3.5). Notre Dame beats the spread.  I’m still on the bandwagon, Coach Weis.  Let’s do this thing.

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Alabama (-3.5) at LSU. Hmm… this is one of those tricky SEC games.  Alabama has literally backed into a big ranking. LSU has two losses, but is still getting the respect of only being favored by 3.5.  I think Alabama will win, and I’ll take them to cove the 3.5.

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NFL games:

Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5). Green Bay beats the spread.  I’m not convinced Minnesota is for real yet – although it should worry GB fans that Peterson is starting to come alive while Grant continues to disappoint.  I’m still taking GB, I’m just saying.

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San Francisco at Arizona (-9) (MNF). I hate Kurt Warner.  Loss or no loss, I’m not picking that jerk.  San Fran beats the spread.

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Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-3). Hmm… good game.  If Big Ben plays, Pitt covers.  If Big Ben doesn’t, Pitt still covers.  See what I did there?  Byron Leftwich isn’t the worst back up in the world, and Indy is in shambles.  Pitt covers.

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Tennessee (-3) at Chicago. Tennessee covers the 3.  Chicago has a good D, but Kerry Collins is a monster (…just kidding, I just wanted to see what it felt like to right that.)  Still, Tennessee is solid, and more than 3 better than Chicago.

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NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5). Really?  Philly by 2.5?  I hope so, but I think you have to take NY to beat the spread until they prove otherwise.  I’ll take the Giants to beat the 2.5.  (Really close spreads this week… not nearly as much fun as the USC 87 point spread from last week.)

Week 10: Not again!??!

Well, save for tonight’s Pittsburgh vs. Washington Monday Nighter, Matt and I are both below .500 for the week so far. It was a miserable weekend for me as I was sick and still continue to feel the pain of some unforseen illness. I don’t have a whole lot to say today, but after 9 games, we each finished 4-5 and thus fortunately for me Matt has not made up any ground yet.

And yes, Notre Daggone Dame foiled me again. They were up 17-3 over Pitt at halftime and managed to screw that whole thing up. Lost in FOUR overtimes to friggin’ Pitt? at home?!?!? Notre Dame just joined the San Fran club in my book. Not planning on maybe every picking them to cover again. Ticks me off.

It’ll either be a 5-5 or 4-6 week for both of us as we each picked Washington to cover the 2 pt spread that was established as of Thursday last week. After nearly a full ten weeks of picks, here are the official standings:

Matt: 50-50-1 (4-5)

Matty J: 57-43-1 (4-5)

Hopefully this week will turn out some better predictions. Geez. This has been a terrible three week stretch for me.

The Week 10 Picks: No whammies, no whammies. STOP!

Well, I have decided this is the week I stop my bleeding and get over the .500 mark after a couple of poor showings in weeks 8 and 9. Last week, particularly, was agitating with a 3-7 finish. Daggone Notre Dame foiled me yet again. I think I am obligated to pick the Irish this week to cover and maybe they’ll help me out for once.

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So far, through 9 weeks, I have mounted up a 7 game lead over Matt, but I am not feeling overly confident as he pulled three games closer in week 9. Here’s the overall standings with the week 10 picks to follow:

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Matt: 46-45-1

Matty J: 53-38-1

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NCAA

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WVU (-4) at Connecticut. Fact is, if WVU plays like it did in the second half vs. Auburn each week, they would be a top 10 football team. They looked that good. However, one solid second half of a football game, does not a season make. (I know, a little wordy there). However, Rutgers beat UConn 12-10 a couple weeks ago, and WVU is much better than Rutgers. By much better, I mean 7 points better (24-17 over Rutgers earlier in the year). I’m taking the ‘Eers to cover although UConn will have a lot to prove in this game after getting completely annhilated in Morgantown last year by 40+ points. WVU 27, UConn 20.

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1 Texas (-4) at 7 Texas Tech. This is a toughie. It started out as a 7 pt line and now it’s down to a 4 pt spread. Texas Tech proved me way wrong last week by smoking Kansas worse than Oklahoma beat the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders rolled Oklahoma last year in a night game in Lubbock. This game is being played at night, at Texas Tech. There could be 80+ points scored in this game easily. I’m going to say Texas covers but barely. Texas 45, TT 40.

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Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-5). This is another spread that is shrinking as the week goes by. I already said it. I’m feeling obligated to actually pick Notre Dame to cover this week. I have picked against them all year and the only time I was right was against San Diego St. and Michigan State. They foiled me in every other game so far. Naturally another unpredictable team shows up this week to play the Irish. Pittsburgh. They’ve lost to Bowling Green at home and just this past week to Rutgers (54-34). This is a classic matchup of which version of each team is going to show up. I’m probably going to be wrong, but I’m going with the home team to cover. Notre Dame 27, Pitt 20.

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8 Florida (-6) vs 6 Georgia in Jacksonville, FL (world’s largest outdoor cocktail party). Every week it seems like the SEC has a top 10 matchup between two of its teams. Maybe another loss by one of these two teams will keep them out of the top 10 for at least a little while. I’m still sick and tired of Georgia. I’m going with the Gators to win, but not cover. Florida 34, Georgia 31.

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Washington at 5 USC (-44). And we come down to the ‘fun’ pick of the week. Normally we wouldn’t pick a useless game like this, but really, a 44 pt spread?!?!? That’s just fun stuff. USC had absolutely dominated it’s last two opponents prior to beating Arizona in a close game last week (17-10). Washington continued to look terrible last week vs. Notre Dame (33-7 loss) and that game was at home. USC might score 70 if they hit on all cylinders. USC 70, Washington 3.

NFL

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Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5). Intriguing matchup. Seems in the NFL, bye weeks are magical. I guess when you put paid coaching staffs together and give them two weeks to focus on one opponent, the results usually are favorable. I’m going with that philosophy in this one. Green Bay 27, Tennesee 24.

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Dallas at NY Giants (-8). This line kind of scares me. It’s a rivalry and the spread has actually grown each day this week. We’re now up to 8 pts in favor of the Jints. Anyone who has watched the Brad Johnson-led Cowboys frankly hasn’t bothered to watch them for very long. It has caused many eyes to become sore and be cause for millions to turn the channel (despite their 1-1 record with Johnson as starter). Dallas being on the road, with no Tony Romo, in potentially cold, nasty weather. Jints win. NY Giants 34, Dallas 20.

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Detroit at Chicago (-13). Here’s another big spread. I bit on the NY Jets and Kansas City last week and lost. Now Vegas is trying to get me to bite on this one too. Detroit is flat out horrible. They are at least okay at home in the dome, but on the road they are terrible. They’ll be playing outside on a typical cold Chicago day. Dan Orlovsky is not getting the job done either. Chicago 31, Detroit 13.

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New England at Indianapolis (-5.5) (SNF). This definitely is not the matchup it used to be in past years. Indy is only 3-4 and the Pats are just not the Pats without Tom Brady (just ask Randy Moss, and all of Randy Moss’s fantasy football league owners). This is actually a tough game to pick. I just saw that Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders are probably going to start this game after riding the injury pine for a while. This is still a great battle between two very determined teams. Indy needs this game more but New England will at least beat the spread here. Indy 31, NE 27.

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Pittsburgh at Washington (-2) (MNF). You never know which of these teams is going to show up. (See Pittsburgh at Notre Dame commentary). One week the Steelers dominate, the next week they’re terrible. Likewise with the ‘Skins. This is a tough, tough game to pick. The Steelers are decimated by injuries (did anyone see back-up long snapper James Harrison’s super high snap out of the endzone for a safety last week vs. the Giants? Yes, it’s that bad in the ‘burgh) and Big Ben can’t drop back longer than 1 second without being sacked due to the pathetic protection – if you want to call it that – from his ‘O’ line. Washington 28, Pittsburgh 23.

NCAA

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WVU (-4) at Connecticut. I’ve been over-thinking football all season.  It’s screwing me with these picks and it’s screwing me in fantasy football.  Unfortunately, this matchup is the quintessential over-think game.  WVU is 0-2 on the road, UConn is perfect at home.  UConn is ranked, WVU isn’t.  It’s likely for the conference title.  WVU plays well against the Big East.  I don’t get why WVU is favored, but at the same time, I don’t want to pick UConn only out of spite against The Worst Coach In The Nation Bill Stewart.  I think I’m going against my normal thought process here and taking WVU to cover on the road against a superior team.  Yeah, WVU by 5 or more.

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1 Texas (-4) at 7 Texas Tech. I’m on the Texas Tech bandwagon… but this game is impossible for them.  The fact that Texas is only favored by 4 points is a gift from Vegas.  I might have to think about it if Texas was -7 or -8, but at -4, I’ll take Texas all day long.  Texas Tech is good, but that conference is brutal this year.  They’ll go to a quality bowl, but it looks like Texas may very well be for real (ugh.)  Texas by 5 or more.

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Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-5). Notre Dame covers.  Pitt?  Really?  It’s not the last game of the season where they can ruin a good team’s chances is it?  If not, Pitt isn’t winning.  ND is tuning up to be in their best shape for USC, and they have a nice warm up against Pitt by 6 or more.

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8 Florida (-6) vs 6 Georgia Hmmm… Am I on or off the Georgia bandwagon?  It’s hard to say. Georgia’ offense continues to hum, but Florida’s O isn’t chopped liver.  Florida’s defense is better than Georgia’s.  This game could be high-scoring, but Florida’s defense should allow them to prevail.  The question, then, is whether they’ll prevail by a TD… I’m saying they do – Florida covers.

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Washington at 5 USC (-44). This is a ridiculous spread.  Seriously, it’s crazy.  I just don’t see USC covering. I’ll take Washington to beat the spread, but I almost expect USC to run the score up just to tick me off.

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NFL

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Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5). Tennessee is sure looking good this year.  I need Greg Jennings to have a good game for fantasy football purposes, but Tennessee is seriusly looking good this year.  I’ll take TEN to cover the 5.5 and beat the mighty Packers of Green Bay, Saskatchewan.

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Dallas at NY Giants (-8). This tells you what Vegas thinks of Tony Romo.  Even at their record, a Tony-Romo-QBed Dallas team would be +1, 2 or 3 MAX underdogs.  Instead we get Brad Johnson, who I believe threw the first forward pass to Red Grange in the 1913 Super Bowl.  The Giants have looked good, but this is an in-conference rivalry game, and Johnson is getting a second week of full reps with the first string.  I think they will themselves to a close game.  I’ll take Dallas to beat the spread.

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Detroit at Chicago (-13). Wow.  Another enormous NFL spread.  I know the Bears D is good and the offense isn’t the worst thing ever.  And I know Detroit’s QB doesn’t know what an end line is, but this is a huge spread.  After losing 4 by 13 or more (…much more), the Lions have lost the last three by a combined 17.  I’ll play the odds and say the Lions play the Bears closer this time around and beat the 14 point spread.

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New England at Indianapolis (-5.5) (SNF). NE beats the spread.  Indy is just off this year.  Cassell isn’t the future, but he’s manageable.  Only reason Indy is getting 5.5 is because they’re at home.  What a joke.  (I’m bitter… Joe Addai was a first round pick for me this year in FFL…)

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Pittsburgh at Washington (-2) (MNF). Hmm.  I think Washington takes this matchup, but it could end up 3-2 final score.  Monday night, sure to be cold, and that Steelers defense.  I’ll still take Washington to win by a field goal, but it should be a good old fashioned grind ‘em out AFC matchup.  (Yes, AFC.  Washington is the most AFC-esque team in the NFC.)